Project Wonderful

Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Did Doug Jones Win Because of Yard Signs? CampaignSick rates as "True but Misleading"

There are two articles that I've had posted on my Facebook, tweeted, texted and emailed to me at least a dozen times each in the past two weeks. One is about unionizing Democratic campaigns (more on that soon- so excited to post my interview with Campaign Workers Guild.) The other is this provocatively titled "How Yard Signs Helped Beat Roy Moore and Could Elect Red State Dems."

For the uninitiated, yard signs are the bane of every Field Director and Campaign Manager's existence because they suck up an inordinate amount of resources and are generally considered ineffective. Every time an article like the one about Doug Jones is published it is cited by hacktivists and candidates alike who believe it to be proof that their terrible gut instincts are now backed by scientific data.

Let's look at what the article actually says. First, it's important to remember that no actual test was done. If Jones' campaign had utilized yard signs in only some precincts but not in others with similar makeups we might be able to draw more reliable conclusions about what effect if any the yard signs had. Second, no one, even proponents of this strategy are claiming that yard signs are responsible for Doug Jones' win.

Of course, he doesn’t think Jones won because of yard signs. No campaign is won or lost because of a single decision, especially in a race with circumstances as unique as the Alabama special election, in which Moore, the GOP candidate, was accused of child molestation.

Rather, the philosophy behind employing yard signs was that it would help convince traditionally Republican Alabamans that it was socially acceptable to vote for a Democrat.

Their realization: the campaign needed to show Republican voters — some of whom hadn’t voted for a Democrat in decades — that it would be OK to support one this time around...“I remember sitting with Giles and talking about neighbor-to-neighbor legitimization,” Perry told McClatchy. “And how this race was different in that signs were going to matter.”

In that regard the move totally makes sense. Let's be honest, Doug Jones won because Roy Moore is a cartoon parody of a dumpster human. (Unlike Donald Trump, Moore did not have the benefit of running against a woman who had already been publicly maligned for the past 20 years.) People needed permission to break the assumed social code and vote Dem. So yes, yard signs work if your opponent is an actual pedophile/child rapist.

The final important point in the article is how the yard signs were distributed.
Perry was most proud of how the campaign handed out its signs, a process he says was never-before-done in Alabama politics. Anybody who wanted one first had to give his or her name, address, telephone number, and email address. The Jones supporter could pick one up from a neighbor, too, but only if he or she could also supply contact information.

To Perry, this was the yard signs’ most important contribution. The data became a resource for the campaign, helping it organize and then mobilize its dedicated supporters and volunteers.

Which supports what operatives have always said, which is that IF yard signs are distributed they should be used to collect volunteer support or information.

So there you have it: yard signs can be used to motivate supporters or defeat pedophiles. But the main point that even the campaign manager in this article would agree with is that they are not a substitute or even a valid supplement for good old fashioned voter contact.


Saturday, April 22, 2017

Isn't That Special (Elections taking place beyond Georgia)


In case you have been living under a rock, or just have a very different social media cadre than I do there is a special election coming up in Georgia. Actually, one just happened and now there is a runoff. (Even though it was not the runaway we were hoping for BIG congratulations to everyone on the ground for Jon Ossoff! I am hopeful for June 20!) That same evening Jackie Smith won the race for Prince William County, Virginia's Clerk of Court and it got me wondering what other state and local special elections are taking place that are worth our notice. With the help of my amazing Facebook friends and wider social media network here is a by-no-means-exhaustive list of special elections taking place across the country! Please feel free to message me to add your own!

Statewide/Federal

Alabama- Alabama's new Governor, Kay Ivey has set the date for a special election to replace a one Jeffrey Beauregard Sessions (now US Attorney General, God help us) in the US Senate. The seat is currently being held by Republican Luther Strange. The primary will be August 15th and the general December 12th. Alabama is R+14.

Georgia- See above. The district is R+8.

Montana- To replace former Congressman Ryan Zinke for Montana's At-Large congressional seat. Zinke is now Secretary of the Interior. Rob Quist is the Democratic nominee. The special election is on May 25th. The district is R+11.

South Carolina- To replace Congressman Mick Mulvaney, now the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The primary is May 2nd and the special election June 20th. The district is R+9.

State and Local

Florida- Special election to replace Frank Artiles, SD 41. You can read about why he resigned this week here. The resignation is so recent that a date has yet to be set, but here is a list of potential candidates.

New Hampshire- After the death of an incumbent State Senator a primary will be held for New Hampshire State Senate District 16 on June 6th followed by a general election on July 25.

New York- There will be a May 23rd special election for New York State Assembly District 9, which is on Long Island. Democrat Christine Pellegrino has an uphill battle.

Rhode Island- Special election to replace resigning Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed of the 13th district. There will be a July 18th primary and an August 22nd general election.

Tennessee- Special election to replace Mark Lovell, HD 95. A primary will take place this Thursday, April 27th and the general election will be on June 15th.

Trump's pick for Army Secretary Mark Green, who says stuff like this about transgender people and represents SD 22 is expected to resign this week which would will trigger an "August-ish" special election.

Washington State- Democrat Manka Dhingra is running in the Senate District 45 special election, being held to replace a legislator who died last year. This race is especially important because it is likely to determine the balance of power in the Washington State Senate. The election will take place in November.

Please note these are not all the special elections going on in the US, just those you thought were noteworthy. You tell me, who else should we be talking about? You can find an addition list, although still not a complete one, of state legislative special elections here.

Shout outs of course to Lincoln and Omaha Nebraska (both in May!), New York City, Atlanta, LA, New Jersey and Virginia all of which have elections this year, although not "specials."